Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are conducted: optimistic declarations are released from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is expended on containing particular approaches. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from across the border, a ability enabled by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been dispatched to intercept incoming guided weapons roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: several firings targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably delivered by partner states. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a aerial vehicle close by, part of a rapid response unit – most likely Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its target.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: seven people killed, destruction and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a reliance that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to replace in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from US administration sparked intense emotion, discussion and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new approach from American administration unfolds according to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This trend will, undoubtedly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership functions according to a assumption well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government presumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to surrender the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does nothing to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from assuming that the situation will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but avoiding a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: political desires to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to terminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show specific hesitation to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
