A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
